Australians might be cooped up inside until summer, new COVID-19 modelling shows.

A report from news website today says Australian COVID-19 hospitalisation cases will peak in October, meaning we may face a lockdown that lasts many months.

“The country would need to remain locked down, to some degree, well past Christmas,” the report said.

The modelling, presented to intensive care consultants, shows even with current social distancing the peak will now be late October.

The report projected 180 hospitalised cases per 100,000 people at a reproduction rate of 1.6 in October 2020.

The news website spoke to consultants who said social distancing restrictions would need to be in place in Australia until at least Summer, perhaps longer.

New South Wales was of particular concern, as there was a high level of local infection compared to other states.

Victoria was tracking a lot better than expected, with just 20 cases today.

There are so far 34 deaths from COVID-19 in Australia, with 2000 recovered.

There have been 8 deaths from the virus in Victoria so far.

Concerns of Community Spread

Today the Chief Medical Officer in Canberra said about 10% of cases in Australia were from unknown community transmission.

CMO Brendan Murphy said 10% of cases in Australia are attributed to untraced community transmission and that is “what worries me most of all”.

That is the reason social distancing measures must be adhered to, he said.

Although the data projections suggest months of continued lockdown, data this week shows Australia is slowing down the growth of COVID-19 so far.

Melbourne News

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